Lekic's landmark goal: What the stats say

With her fifth goal – a jump shot from 8.5 meters – in the away win against MKS Zaglebie Lubin on Sunday, Andrea Lekic scored her 1,000^th goal in the EHF Champions League Women. Thereby, she joined Jovanka Radičević, Cristina Neagu, and Anita Görbicz in the exclusive club of players that have scored more than 1,000 goals in the competition.

There was no sign that she was trying to force her way to this milestone. On the contrary, the game against Lubin was in many ways exactly average for her current season. She scored 7 goals from 10 attempts, while her averages this season are 6.5 goals per game from 10.1 attempts. As a result, her shooting efficiency of 70.0 per cent was even better than her average this season (64.2 per cent).

With 3 turnovers, she was also above her season average of 2.3. Overall, she was responsible for 15.0 per cent of her team's "ended opportunities" on Sunday (shots from the field, seven-metre penalties, or lost possession), which was also close to her season average of 17.8 per cent.

Especially remarkable this season is the penalty shooting of the 2012/13 EHF Champions League winner. Against Lubin she scored a perfect four out of four attempts. Given her outstanding penalty shooting this season, that has come to be expected from her. Amongst all high-volume seven-metre penalty shooters with more than 12 attempts, she has the best shooting percentage by far with 90.5 per cent.

So overall, it sounds like it was a normal day at the office for the Serbian international. With the one big exception that she became only the fourth player to score a 1,000th goal!

Longevity is the key

What’s particularly striking is Lekic's longevity. With 52 goals, she leads the scoring charts in her 17th EHF Champions League season. She has scored only three goals fewer than her tally last year and is on track to have her best scoring season since at least 2018/19 where she scored 73 goals for CSM Bucuresti.

Per game, her 6.5 goals per game is third best behind Kristine Breistøl (7.4) and Anna Vyakhireva (6.8) who have played one and two games fewer, respectively. If she is able to keep scoring at this rate and continues to play every game, she is going to set a new personal record for goals scored before the knockout stage begins. Her record is 88 in 2008/09, but she is currently projected to have 91 goals after 14 games.

So, it seems that there is much more possible for the 2013 IHF World Player of the Year than the 1,002 goals she has scored thus far. Anita Görbicz currently ranks third in the all-time scoring list of the EHF Champions League with 1,016 goals. In two or three games, Lekic should overtake her former teammate from Györ and climb to third place.

After that, however, it is much more difficult to predict how high up the podium the Serbian can go and how long she will be able to hold her place. A lot depends on how successful Cristina Neagu (1,069 goals) and Jovanka Radičević (1,110 goals) can continue to be and how long they will continue to play. If one of them finishes her career before Lekic, it is quite possible that she will overtake them. Otherwise, it probably will not be possible since they are still scoring well; both have already scored 41 goals each this season.

Can Lekic, Neagu and Radičević ever be overtaken?

Of course, there are also younger players pushing for the throne from behind, or at least for the 1,000-goal mark. The next players to notch a four-digit number of goals in the EHF Champions League should be Ana Gros and Nora Mørk. With 864 and 831 goals, respectively, they currently rank fifth and seventh in the all-time scoring list.

Based on the projections of their recent scoring numbers, it should take roughly 40 games for Gros and 30 for Mørk to reach 1,000 goals. So, for Gros it could be in the 2025/26 season, which she could definitely achieve as her current contract with RK Krim runs until 2026.

Mørk, however, could already overtake Gros this season and get to the 1,000 goal mark next season at the earliest. But here, too, it is of course important that she stays healthy and that her team gets as far as possible in the competition. Whether Mørk or Gros could then also attack the top three of Radičević, Neagu and Lekic depends heavily on how long they all can continue.

But there are two other younger players that could challenge the top three if they manage to keep the pace they are scoring at now: Last year’s EHF Champions League top scorer Henny Reistad and Lekic’s teammate Katrin Klujber. The two 24-year-olds currently stand at 470 and 424 goals apiece which is more than Lekic, Neagu, Radičević, Mørk and Gros all had at the same age.

If they keep their scoring averages per season of 72.5 for Reistad and 63.7 for Klujber, they will reach 1,000 goals in 2029/30 and 2031/32 when they are 30 and 32 years old, respectively. However, that average includes the first years of their careers when they had smaller roles on their teams. Based on their averages of the last seasons they would get to 1,000 goals one and two seasons quicker.

If they do achieve this mark that young, the scoring records Lekic, Neagu and Radičević will have set will probably be in danger. But until then, they still have several years ahead of them where a lot can happen. The fact that only four players have achieved 1,000 goals so far also shows how difficult it is to maintain this level over such a long period of time.

More from data analyst Julian Rux can be found at Handballytics.de. There you can read his latest articles, in which he analyses all kinds of handball topics from new, data-based perspectives. You can also find him on Instagram, Facebook and Twitter.