Focus on goalkeepers when Ludwigsburg meet Brest in MOTW

This was evident again last EHF Champions League season, where the team with more saves by their goalkeepers didn’t lose in 65.9 per cent of all matches. Looking only at court saves, the number even increases to 68.9 per cent.

Even more meaningful than number of saves is the save percentage: The team with the better save percentage didn’t lose in 80.3 per cent of all matches; for the court save percentage it was exactly the same.

The most meaningful, however, is the net save percentage, which only includes saves that lead to possession for the defending team: 81.8 per cent of all matches were won or at least drawn by the team with the better net save percentage.

Strong start into the season for Brest’s goalkeepers

For Brest, the difference between save percentage and net save percentage was a bit of a problem last season. With 33.0 per cent, they had the fourth-best save percentage, while 27.9 per cent was just enough for fifth place in the net saves ranking. The difference of 5.0 percentage points between those two figures, however, was the fourth highest drop of the competition.

Among their main goalkeepers, especially Julie Foggea had to fight with that problem. Of all 24 goalkeepers who faced more than 200 shots on goal last season, she ranked ninth in save percentage with 30.8, but in terms of net saves just 14th with 25.3 per cent. This difference of 5.5 percentage points was the second highest drop of the competition. In other words: after 17.9 per cent of her saves, the opposing team remained in possession.

For their other goalkeeper, Katharina Filter, that drop was around average. She had the fourth-best save percentage with 34.6, while she ranked fourth in net saves as well with 29.7 per cent.

The new season is still young, and the significance of the figures after three rounds is limited, but this has at least improved slightly so far. Brest’s goalkeepers have made a strong start to the season: With 37.8 per cent, the French side has the second-best save rate and their net save percentage is 4.7 percentage points worse. That is slightly better than last season and currently five other teams have a worse difference. As the save percentage has improved, the difference is obviously easier to cope with.

Especially Floriane André, who has arrived from Neptunes de Nantes to replace Foggea, has had an outstanding start into her first EHF Champions League season. Among all goalkeepers that faced at least 40 shots on their goal, she ranks second in both save percentage (40.8) and net save percentage (36.7). Her teammate Filter ranks in the top 5 in save percentage as well with 35.9, but is only nineth in net save percentage with 30.8.

It was also noticeable last season that Brest’s goalkeepers had problems with penalties. With 13.5 per cent of seven-metre shots saved, they had the third-lowest percentage. Even if the current season is not yet particularly meaningful due to the small sample size, they have already saved almost half as many seven-metre shots as last year: At 18.8 per cent, they are currently in fifth place.

Ludwigsburg rely on a clear No. 1

While Brest have relied on a goalkeeping duo with similar playing times in both the current and last season, HB Ludwigsburg, who were competing as SG BBM Bietigheim until last season, have a clear No. 1 and No. 2.

Last season, Gabriela Moreschi faced 82.3 per cent of all shots on Bietigheim’s goal – the highest number among all EHF Champions League teams. In contrast, Katharina Filter, Brest’s goalkeeper that played the most, was on 57.7 per cent, which was just the 13^th-highest number.

Moreschi rewarded coach Jakob Vestergaard’s trust in her with strong performances. Overall, she had the seventh-best save percentage with 31.8. But especially remarkable were her highlights: Against WHC Buducnost for example, she had the highest save percentage (58.1) among all goalkeepers in the competition that faced more than 20 shots in one game. In the semi-final against Metz Handball, she led her team with a save percentage of 35.6 to the final.

The final against Györi Audi ETO KC, however, showed the weakness of the one-main-goalkeeper approach. Moreschi’s save percentage that final was her second-worst of the entire season at just 20.7, and her team had no chance.

This season Ludwigsburg have a completely revamped goalkeeping team. Moreschi, Melinda Szikora, whose knee injury forced them to adopt the one-main-goalkeeper strategy, and Sarah Nørklit Lønborg left the club, with Johanna Bundsen and Nicole Roth arriving as replacements.

Similar to last season, they have a clear No. 1 in Johanna Bundsen, who has faced 92.2 per cent of the shots on Ludwigsburg’s goal so far. Only Storhamar Handball Elite’s Eli Marie Raasok currently has a higher share with 97.3 per cent. Her save percentage of 33.1 vindicates the trust of her coach.

Being the clear No. 1 is nothing new for Bundsen, who also held this position when playing for IK Sävehof in her native Sweden last season: She stood in goal for 79.5 per cent of the shots against her team, which meant third place. However, she was able to save  just 28.9 per cent, which ranked her 18th among the 24 goalkeepers that had faced at least 200 shots in total.

Of course, Sävehof had poorer defensive stats overall than Bietigheim last season, as they blocked just 0.4 per cent of their opponents’ shots from the court – fewer than any other teams. Therefore, she probably also faced much more difficult shots to save.

More from data analyst Julian Rux can be found at Handballytics.de. There you can read his latest articles, in which he analyses all kinds of handball topics from new, data-based perspectives. You can also find him on Instagram, Facebook, X, Threads and WhatsApp Channels.

photos © 2024 Marco Wolf (main image); Olivier Stephan (text image)