Scoring runs and turnovers: data insights into Metz's decisive win

Two years ago, in an article on the Machineseeker EHF Champions League, we took a closer look at the so-called “kill shot” runs, which represent 5:0 scoring stretches — meaning that one team nets five unanswered goals. The previous analysis showed that teams with a “kill shot” run in a game won their game 78.8 per cent of the time.

In the final of the EHF Champions League Women 2025/26, Metz Handball may not have managed to deliver a “kill shot”, but a 6:1 surge between the 38th and 46th minutes put the French side on the road to victory. They then had a 28:22 lead, which proved too much for favourites Györi Audi ETO KC, despite the Hungarian club ending the match with a 5:1 run of their own.

6:1 scoring runs are not as rare as one might think. This season, at least one such run occured in 86 matches, and in 10 of those games both teams managed that achievement. In 78.1 per cent of cases, the team with at least one 6:1 run went on to win the match.

This marks an increase compared with previous years, as between the 2022/23 and 2024/25 seasons, only 69.6 per cent of teams who produced a 6:1 run also managed to win the match. Including the 2025/25 season, that figure now rises at 71.9 per cent.

Turnovers became Györ’s kryptonite

During the 6:1 run that decided the course of the match, Györ turned the ball over five times. Throughout the game, they lost the ball 16 times, with 28.6 per cent of their possessions against Metz ending in a turnover — which was by far their highest rate in a single match this season.

Going into the Raiffeisen Bank EHF FINAL4 2026, turnovers were arguably Györ’s biggest strength, with just 16.2 per cent of their possessions ending in a lost ball, while, in turn, they forced their opponents into turnovers on 24.4 per cent of possessions — leading the competition in both categories.

In the semi-final against Brest Bretagne Handball, they already encountered problems with turnovers: 21.7 per cent of possessions ending with a lost ball was their third-highest rate of the season. Fortunately, they were able to make up for that with their defensive strength, forcing Brest to turnovers in 35.0 per cent of their possessions.

In the final, however, the Hungarian side could no longer compensate for these issues. Metz lost the ball only 11 times — in 19.6 per cent of their possessions —, meaning five fewer turnovers than Györ. The only game this season in which Györ’s had a worse difference between committed and forced turnovers was in their home game in the group phase against Metz, which they won 31:27.

This turnover gap, in addition to two more second chances through offensive rebounds, allowed Metz to win despite having a worse shooting efficiency by 5.7 percentage points — 63.3 per cent compared to 69.0. Only six teams this season managed to win a game while facing a higher difference in shooting efficiency.

Unstoppable Sarah Bouktit

Switching from team data to individual statistics, Sarah Bouktit — who was also named MVP of the Raiffeisen Bank EHF FINAL4 2026 — immediately stood out. After eight goals in the semi-final, she scored 12 times in the final and was just two goals shy of her personal EHF Champions League career high set in 2023 against Vipers Kristiansand. She is the only player this season to score at least 12 goals from 15 attempts or less.

Two of her goals were from the seven-metre line (out of three attempts), while 10 goals were from the field — and in these non-penalty attempts, she scored on 83.3 per cent of her shots. Out of 100 players who shot more than 10 times from the field in a game this season, just five were more efficient than that.

Bouktit was responsible for ending 26.7 percent of her team’s attacks with a field shot, turnover or by receiving a seven-metre penalty — and no other line player had a higher offensive responsibility in one game this season. Interestingly, the previous highest performance was Bouktit's in Metz’s group stage loss in Györ, when the Hungarian club’s defence was already struggling to cope with the French player — although Metz didn’t manage to secure a win back then.

Györ’s usually great defence was simply not able to stop the French line player for most of the game. The Hungarian side’s right wing Nathalie Hagman summed it up as follows: “I don't think we [found] a good solution in our defence. And, of course, the MVP girl [Sarah Bouktit], she played [an] amazing game today. We struggled a lot over 60 minutes with her, and I think this was really the big thing for them and why we lost today.”

Bouktit has been in fine form offensively all season. Of all 43 players with at least 80 field attempts, none of them had a better shooting percentage than her: 76.7.

Defence was key for Metz all season long

Despite this great offensive performance by Sarah Bouktit, it was the defence that led Metz to the title. To compare and evaluate teams fairly over the whole season, we use opponent- and pace-adjusted numbers of goals scored and conceded. This procedure was explained in more detail in the preview article for the Raiffeisen Bank EHF FINAL4.

Over the whole season, in defence, Metz have ranked first with an opponent-adjusted 22.5 goals conceded per 50 possessions. In the final, they kept Györ’s strong attack at 2.7 goals below their average per 50 possessions. In attack, the newly crowned champions rank just sixth over the whole season, with an opponent-adjusted 27.3 goals scored per 50 possessions. But in the biggest games, that level was enough, thanks to performances like Bouktit’s in the final.

More from data analyst Julian Rux can be found at Handballytics.de. There you can read his latest articles, in which he analyses all kinds of handball topics from new, data-based perspectives. You can also find him on Instagram, Bluesky and WhatsApp Channels.

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