What the numbers say about the TruckScout24 EHF FINAL4 2026
For the final matches of the Machineseeker EHF Champions League, data analyst Julian Rux provides the handball community with deep insights into the numbers behind the game, analysing what the data says about teams’ and players’ performances. To preview the TruckScout24 EHF FINAL4 2026, he looks at where each team stands out and how probable it is for them to win it all.
This year’s semi-finals of the Machineseeker EHF Champions League each have a clear theme: the best defence and the best attack face an opponent that has its strength on the same side of the field and is among the best teams there as well.
Aalborg Håndbold vs Barça: the defensive behemoths
It does feel a bit like ‘Groundhog Day’, because as is the case for the last couple years, Barça once again boast the best defence in the Machineseeker EHF Champions League. Adjusted to the strength of their opponents they concede just 25.2 goals per 50 possessions, which is almost two goals better than second placed Aalborg (26.9). (Opponent-adjusted and possession-adjusted statistics are used here to ensure a fair comparison between teams. Further details on the reasoning and methodology can be found here.)
A closer look at the more detailed statistics reveals that Barça are outstanding in defence on several levels. For example, they are the team that forces their opponents into the most turnovers (20.2 per cent of all opposition possessions end in a turnover). They also incur the fewest suspension minutes, with just 3.8 per game.
In addition, they allow the lowest opponent shooting percentage at 58.0. Consequently, they are also right at the top of the save percentage rankings as their goalkeepers have saved 33.7 per cent of shots on their goal.
Both Emil Nielsen and Viktor Hallgrímsson are having outstanding seasons. Nielsen leads the competition-wide ranking for saves with 34.6 per cent, with Hallgrímsson following in third place. In terms of the net save percentage, which counts only saves where the goalkeeper’s team subsequently gains possession, the duo occupies the top two spots. However, with 29.3 per cent Hallgrímsson ranks before Nielsen (29.0 per cent) here.
Aalborg also perform well across all these defensive statistical categories, though not nearly as well as Barça. It is their non-penalty shooting percentage that comes closest to matching the Spanish champions. At 59.6 per cent, they sit in second place, behind Barça’s 56.5 per cent.
However, it would be unfair to reduce Carlos Ortega’s team to just their defensive capabilities, as with an opponent-adjusted 30.3 goals per 50 possessions, they also have the second-best attack in the Machineseeker EHF Champions League, behind SC Magdeburg. That said, the gap to first placed Magdeburg is bigger than that to the seventh place, and therefore also bigger than that to sixth-placed Aalborg (30.1).
Accordingly, our mathematical model, which predicts the probabilities of victory based on these opponent and paced adjusted values, sees Barça as favourites not only in the clash with Aalborg but also for overall victory. It assigns a probability of 34.2 per cent to Dika Mem and his teammates to win it all, compared to 17.3 per cent for Aalborg.
For Magdeburg, the player that has the share of the most finishes in attack for his team, with a non-penalty shot, received seven-metre penalty throw or turnover (this metric is also known as offensive responsibility) is Gisli Kristjansson. But with 17.1 per cent, he ranks just 21st among all players, showing how balanced Magdeburg’s attack is.
For their semi-final opponents Füchse Berlin, there is a stark contrast. Their superstar Mathias Gidsel’s offensive responsibility is with 30.7 per cent — clearly the highest of the competition. Last season, his team's internal ranking in offensive responsibility put him narrowly ahead of Lasse Andersson. This season, Gidsel is clearly ahead.
It has often been reported that Gidsel has already set a new goal-scoring record without scoring a single penalty. With 9.5 goals per game, he is also on the verge of setting a new goals-per-game record (at least 10 games played). In fact, he just needs to score twice in the remaining two matches to beat Zlatko Saračević‘s 8.5 goals per game from 1999/00.
Even though it looks like a formality given Gidsel’s impressive scoring statistics, it is always worth emphasising just how remarkably efficient he is. Among all 28 players with at least six field goals per game, he is the most efficient with a shooting percentage of 73.8 per cent.
Defensively, the opponent-adjusted metrics see Berlin slightly ahead of Magdeburg, with 28.1 (sixth) goals conceded per 50 possessions to 28.8 (seventh). Nevertheless, the model suggests that the overall outstanding attack has a slight edge over the attack that relies primarily on a single player. After all, it sees Magdeburg at a 26.6 per cent chance of lifting the trophy on Sunday, compared to Berlin’s 23.0 per cent.
So, in the final, we’re sure to see a clash between one of the most outstanding attacking sides and one of the strongest defences. The final will therefore show whether the old saying ‘offence wins games, defence wins championships’ holds true once again, or whether it’s the other way round this time. The probabilities suggest that the saying is slightly more likely to be proven right. But as is the case every year, anything is possible in Cologne.
More from data analyst Julian Rux can be found at Handballytics.de. There you can read his latest articles, in which he analyses all kinds of handball topics from new, data-based perspectives. You can also find him on Instagram, Bluesky and WhatsApp.
