The data behind Iceland’s attack

For the first time in 16 years Iceland made it to the semi-finals of an EHF EURO. A look at the basic efficiency statistics shows us why they succeeded: the main reason was their very good offence.

The best way to determine these basic efficiency statistics and with that the quality of a team in offence and defence is by adjusting the goals scored and conceded to 50 possessions. This is significantly more meaningful than just the raw number of goals scored and conceded because it makes the teams actually comparable since the raw number of goals is not only influenced by efficiency, but also by the number of possessions (whether a team and their opponents play rather fast or slow).

For example, France had about 13 possessions more than North Macedonia. So, even though France conceded almost four goals more per game than North Macedonia, the higher number of possessions explain that difference. In fact, adjusting to the same number of possessions shows that France’s defence was better.

However, in tournaments not everyone plays against the same opponents and the differences in opponents’ quality can sometimes be huge. For example, teams that go far face much tougher opponents. To even out these problems the numbers can also be adjusted for opponent strength.

This adjustment is done by calculating how many goals scored and conceded per 50 possessions would be expected for each game and team by the number of goals the opponents scored and conceded per 50 possessions in their other games. So-called “garbage time”, when the game is already decided, is also filtered out. The differences to the actual goals scored and conceded can then be added to the goals scored or conceded per 50 possessions to have an adjusted rating.

In fact, looking at these ratings for offence Iceland ranks second with 32 opponent-adjusted goals per 50 possessions. The only team that is better is Denmark with 33.5. So, we can expect an offensive spectacle in the semi-finals.

Defensively, Iceland rank 10th among all teams in the competition, with 27.2 opponent-adjusted goals conceded per 50 possessions. That is a bit better than average, as the chart above shows, but clearly worse than their semi-final opponents Denmark, who rank second with 25.9. So, the numbers emphasise that Iceland are the underdogs against the world and Olympic champions.

Shot quality is the key

The basis for Iceland’s high offensive stats is that they take good care of the ball. Adjusted to 50 possessions to make the numbers better comparable, they turn the ball over 7.2 times, which is the fourth fewest. That is not a given for a team with their style of play.

Together with Denmark, Iceland are the only team that ranks among the top four in turnovers and shooting efficiency. With 69.3 per cent successful shot attempts, they rank third here, behind Slovenia (70.6) and, of course, Denmark (71.9).

More insight into the shooting numbers gives the tracking data, with precise locations for each shot. This data tells us for example that among all main round teams Iceland shoots from the shortest average distance in positional play at just six metres. In addition, just 7.7 per cent of their field shots were from more than 8.5 metres, which is also the fewest among all teams that made it to the main round.

Based on even more detailed data are Expected Goals (xG) and metrics derived from it. In short, xG are the average value of a shot being scored based on thousands of shots on the past that is calculated by statistical models that are fed with several information of each shot such as the distance, angle, position of the goalkeeper or type of shot. Expected Goals were explained in detail in the first article of this series on EHF EURO 2026.

The average xG value per shows if a team makes high-quality shots. Iceland is here the best among the main round teams as well with 68.1 per cent. Overall, just the Faroe Islands were slightly better with 68.6 per cent, as their constant use of seven against six in positional attack led to many good scoring chances.

Here, Iceland’s back-court players stand out. Among all 51 back-court players with at least 25 non-penalty shots Janus Daði Smárason (74.1 per cent), Viggó Kristjánsson (68.0), Ómar Ingi Magnússon (65.5) and Gísli Kristjánsson (65.0) all rank in the top 13 in shot percentage. The only other team with more than one player in the top 13 is Denmark with Mathias Gidsel (73.0 per cent) and Simon Pytlick (72.9).

At the same time the four Icelandic players all also rank in the top 11 of the highest non-penalty shot quality among the 51 back-court players. So, their good shooting percentages are due to the fact that they regularly manage to get into very good scoring positions.

However, finishing ability or shot making, a second metric based on xG, show why it wasn't quite enough for the best offence in the competition. While all good teams clearly outperformed their xG, Iceland ranks just 11th overall and 10th among the 12 main round teams with 1.7 per cent more goals than expected. A small improvement here would make them the best offence in the tournament.

Improvements in all aspects

At EHF EURO 2024 Iceland’s opponent-adjusted offensive efficiency was at just 27.2 goals per 50 possessions. Their improvement of 4.8 goals from two years ago to today is the biggest of all teams.

All their offensive statistics were worse in 2024. Per 50 possessions they had 2.3 turnovers more and converted 9.8 percentage points fewer shots.

Once again, the more detailed metrics can show why. In 2024, they shot from a longer average distance in positional play with 6.6 metres and had a higher share of shots from more than 8.5 metres with 19.3 per cent, while their shot quality was already good with 65.3 per cent but not quite at the level of this year.

A big problem was their shot making, as they scored 8.9 per cent less goals than expected, which was the second worst among teams in the main round. So, while ranking-wise they did not improve here, the improvement of 10.6 percentage points nevertheless is a great achievement that put them on a new level.

So, Snorri Steinn Guðjónsson really seems to have found the way to unleash his team’s offence. It is going to be very interesting to see if Iceland can keep that level and step up their defence in the semi-final against Denmark to have a chance to create a surprise.

More from data analyst Julian Rux can be found at Handballytics.de. There you can read his latest articles, in which he analyses all kinds of handball topics from new, data-based perspectives. You can also find him on Instagram, Facebook, Threads, and WhatsApp Channels.

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