10,000 simulations of the EHF Champions League Women

Two match days are still to be played in the EHF Champions League Women group phase before the knockout stage begins. The first decisions, for example Györi Audi ETO KC going straight through to the quarter-finals as group winners, have already been made. But apart from that, a lot is still possible.

To see how probable each possibility is, similar to the Machineseeker EHF Champions League two months ago, 10,000 simulations were made of the rest of the season. The simulations were based on the current standings and past results of previous seasons, as well as offensive and defensive efficiency statistics from the current season. Based on this, the outcomes of the remaining games were simulated 10,000 times. This yielded the following results.

Györ are the big favourites

As mentioned before, Györ already have their quarter-final ticket booked. In addition, they are also the team that reached the EHF FINAL4 and final and won the title the most often in the simulations. In almost every third simulation the Hungarian side was victorious in the end. They owe this in particular to their outstanding defence, where they lead the competition with just 22.0 goals conceded per 50 possessions.

The other five teams from this group that will participate in the knockout stage are already known as well, as WHC Buducnost BEMAX and IK Sävehof no longer have a chance of reaching the playoffs. Behind Györ, Odense Håndbold have the second-best chance to reach the quarter-finals, as they are heavily favoured against Buducnost, and then play their biggest rival for the direct quarter-final spot, CSM Bucuresti, at home.

Even though Odense lost the first leg in Bucuresti it is not unlikely that they still win the head-to-head record as they are the only team of the competition that ranks in the top three in both attacking and defensive efficiency. There were of course simulations where they did not get the direct spot, but then they would of course still be the favourite in their play-off match-up, which is why overall they reached the quarterfinals in 97.9 per cent of simulations.

For the other teams in group A the probabilities for each round decrease with their current ranking in the group.

More balance in group B

Only MKS Zaglebie Lubin have already been eliminated and no team has already secured a place in the quarterfinals, although Metz Handball are pretty close. Group B is therefore slightly more balanced than group A.

In just 0.5 per cent of the simulations Metz failed to reach the quarterfinal. To be in this position, they would either have to lose both of their remaining games, while Team Esbjerg and Ikast Handbold would have to pick up at least three points, or if they get one point, their two rivals would have to win both games and then, of course, they would have to lose the play-off as well.

Ikast are from a statistically point of view very interesting, as they have the best offence in the EHF Champions League, scoring 29.2 goals per 50 possessions. However, they have problems in defence where they rank just 11th, conceding 26.4 goals per 50 possessions.

Kasper Christensen’s team will face Vipers Kristiansand and Metz in the remaining games, and have lost the head-to-head record against Esbjerg who are one point ahead of them. That is why besides their defensive problems their chances of reaching the quarter-finals are significantly lower than those of their compatriots from Esbjerg, even though the point difference is small.

At the bottom CS Rapid Bucuresti are very interesting as well. It does not look good for the Romanian side, as they are three points behind sixth placed FTC-Rail Cargo Hungaria and four points behind fifth placed Krim Mercator Ljubljana. Nevertheless, they reached the final in seven of the 10,000 simulations. In their last two games they face Lubin away and have home court advantage against Esbjerg.

For Esbjerg, nothing could be at stake in the final group game which could play into Rapid’s hands. In addition, Rapid hold the head-to-head record against Krim. But they are of course dependent on support of Krim’s last opponents (Esbjerg and Lubin) and those of FTC (Vipers and Metz). So, of course, the probability of Rapid making it to the knockout stage is – since a lot would have to come together – still not high at 5.4 per cent.

But as with the Machineseeker EHF Champions League, things can turn out quite differently than you think in the end. The EHF FINAL4 in particular has shown that often enough.

More from data analyst Julian Rux can be found at Handballytics.de. There you can read his latest articles, in which he analyses all kinds of handball topics from new, data-based perspectives. You can also find him on Instagram, Facebook, X/Twitter, Threads and WhatsApp Channels.

Photo © Zsuzsanna Orloci